As noted in this week’s Soapbox on how the schedule isn’t up to par this season — nor has it been for years — the Padres and the Dodgers just played each other for the first time this season. The Giants and Dodgers haven’t even played yet, but that changes Friday when San Francisco visits Dodger Stadium.
The odds suggest the race is over and has been all season, but the Dodgers only have a half-game lead over the Giants and lead the Padres by two. With plenty of head-to-head action remaining, this division is far from finished.
What better time than to check in on the NL West as a whole?
As always, we’ll discuss from this a bettor perspective, but those uninterested in gambling will still be able to just examine the state of the division right now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 41-28 | Odds to win West: -700
No matter where you look for projections, predictions or odds, everything screams that the Dodgers winning this division is a foregone conclusion. I’m not even gonna argue. They remain my prediction here. I just can’t get past how sure everyone is. It’s not that extreme. Two National League teams have a better record and run differential. Their NL West lead is less than a game right now, tied in the loss column. They have an entire pitching staff on the injured list.
I’m not really worried about the loaded offense and they always find a way to piece together the bullpen, but if you wanted to wager against them, the rotation is what could be their undoing.
The starting pitching staff they have isn’t, at present, very good behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and they likely don’t want him to be full-go in the rotation all season. Overall, Dodgers starters this season rank 22nd in baseball in ERA and 29th in innings pitched. They’ll probably get some of the walking wounded back, but shoulder problems are what plague Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell and those always end up tricky. Tony Gonsolin has elbow discomfort and he was returning this season from Tommy John surgery. Is Shohei Ohtani going to pitch? We keep waiting on it.
Reports indicate Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani could all be back soon, but, again, it’s tough to rely on pitcher health.
It could well be a problem all year. And, sure, they’ve been in first place most of the year, but just barely. They haven’t had a bigger lead than two games. Every other division has seen a team sit with a larger lead. In fact, all are bigger than that right now.
That’s where you’ll find an opening to bet on a non-Dodgers team here, should you so choose.
San Francisco Giants
Record: 40-28 | Odds to win West: +1100
The Giants are doing that thing again where they play much better baseball than expected and look much better on the actual diamond than the names on paper. The one time in the last decade-plus the Dodgers didn’t win the division, the Giants somehow won a whopping 107 games. That won’t happen this year, but it won’t need to in order for them to steal this division.
There’s enough in the rotation to believe the Giants will be awesome here all year behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, followed up by some mix of Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Kyle Harrison and Justin Verlander. Now that Camilo Doval is settled back in as a dominant closer, the bullpen is a force, too, with Randy Rodríguez, Tyler Rogers and Erik Miller excellent in setup duties.
Can they hit enough? The Matt Chapman injury certainly hurts, but he shouldn’t need an extended absence. Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee have shown enough to believe in them and Wilmer Flores has been good more often than he’s been bad in his time in San Francisco. They’ll need more the rest of the year from Willy Adames, Mike Yastrzemski and Tyler Fitzgerald, but all three have shown they have the talent to produce.
Basically, if you wanted to make the case for the Giants to shock everyone here, I’d be open to buying it.
The Giants have one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball (of course, the Dodgers’ is actually easier). They also have 13 games left against the Dodgers and could take care of their own business there.
San Diego Padres
Record: 38-29 | Odds to win West: +1100
The rotation the Padres have right now just isn’t good enough. They need Michael King back ASAP, but it’s a shoulder injury and I mentioned those can linger.
They could use the good version of Dylan Cease, but it’s still a thin rotation until both Darvish and King are all the way back.
The good news is the Padres have had one of the best bullpens in baseball this season and that will likely continue.
Offensively, the Padres could sure stand to hit for more power as a team. They are 23rd in slugging percentage and only three players have more than five home runs. Yes, it’s a nice start with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado (Gavin Sheets is the third on that list), but they must get more from Xander Bogaerts while left field is a hole of futility. They don’t have much offense behind the plate, either. And now that you mention it, Tatis has actually slowed down pretty significantly from his MVP-caliber start to the season.
The team as a whole has slowed down, really. The Padres started the season 14-3. They are 24-26 with a -12 run differential since. That’s a much larger sample.
Given the rotation injuries and how thin it was to begin with, I’m a bit bearish on the Padres chances moving forward.
They do have some high-end talent, though, and have been hot several times this season. They are only two games back and have 10 remaining games against the Dodgers (and seven against the Giants). If you believe in the Padres, the +1100 odds aren’t a horrible idea.
Record: 34-34 | Odds to win West: +4800
The D-backs have a lot of talent, should be better than their record and have won seven of 10, but they now face an uphill battle. They are 6 ½ games out in the NL West, which isn’t horrible. The problem is that they’re sitting in fourth place and that’s a whole different ballgame than just running one team down. They are also 4 ½ back in the wild-card race, but that’s with three teams between them and the final playoff spot.
They are facing this with Corbin Burnes now out for the season due to needing Tommy John surgery.
The Diamondbacks are not in position to be sellers at the trade deadline. Yet. Right now, it’s workable and if they keep stacking wins, they’ll get back in the race and could be a contender to the end, especially in the wild-card race.
If they fall a little further out of the race though (and with six weeks left, there’s plenty of time), the following players are free agents at the end of this season and could be traded: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor. It would be an opportunity to reshape a solid foundation and continue to build around stars Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte with the hope of Burnes coming back late in 2026.
This is a much more plausible path for the 2025 Diamondbacks than winning the division.
The play: Four choices
As illustrated by the odds, pretty much everyone thinks it’s a foregone conclusion that the Dodgers win this division. That remains the most likely scenario here. It just isn’t the only one. If you like the Padres or Giants at those numbers, I think there’s a justification for playing them.
I’m actually staying away and betting nothing right now. Sometimes that’s the best move. I do think the Dodgers win this division and that remains my prediction, but at that number I’m not playing it and I don’t think this thing is as simple as “the Dodgers are definitely going to win it,” given what we’ve seen from the Giants and Padres so far.
The bottom line is there are four choices. Ride the Dodgers to victory, bet on the Padres, bet on the Giants or just avoid playing it.